Commodities: Global
OPEC Oil Production Rose for a second month in November as Libya’s production recovered after resolution of a political crisis, a Reuters survey found, as members making cuts kept output otherwise steady. 
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 26.51 million barrels per day (mbpd) last month, up 180,000 bpd from October, with Libya posting the largest increase. Libyan oil exports flowed at a 7-month high, with total production also pumped up to nearly 1.6 mbpd in November. An explosion at Venezuela’s Muscar gas complex caused the country’s propane production to plunge by 97%, according to Bloomberg. With repairs expected to take four months, the country is now bracing for severe cooking-gas shortages. Natural gas production also fell by about 40%. On the other hand, their oil exports hit a recent record, approaching 1 million barrels per day, a level not seen since early 2020. OPEC+ confirmed in early December it would delay the start of its output cuts of 3.65 mbpd until April 2025, which had already been deferred from October 2024. In addition, they will push back the end of the cut unwind until December 2026.
The US’ Energy Information Agency’s November Report projected US oil output to average 13.2 mbpd in 2024, about 300,000 bpd more than 2023’s production, and increase to 13.5 mbpd in 2025. US operating oil rigs again ticked lower to 477 as of November 27th from 479 on November 1st. Per AAA, US average regular unleaded gasoline prices per gallon declined to $3.05 (-7¢) by the beginning of December (California’s average was $4.42 by comparison). The graphic left underscores the dramatic change in US energy production – note that the US still imports 4.5 mbpd from Canada and Mexico (also another 0.7 mbpd from a few other countries) to reach the optimal chemical composition for its refineries. Productivity in America’s oil and gas extraction sector almost tripled in the ten years ending in 2022, compared with a near-doubling in some tech-driven industries, according to federal statistics cited by the Financial Times. The nation’s crude output has risen to a record 13.3 mbpd, 48% more than Saudi Arabia. AND with less than a third of the rigs and far fewer workers than were needed a decade ago.
Chinese Oil Imports were on track to rebound in November to the highest in three months at 11.4 mbpd, but the increasing appetite of the world’s largest oil importer is more about price than rising demand as gasoline and diesel demand was projected to fall in 2025. 
October’s numbers were 11.1 mbpd due to weak demand at independent refiners. For the first ten months of this year, China’s crude oil imports averaged 10.8 mbpd, which is down -3.4% compared to the same period last year. China was projected to consume about -3% less gasoline in 2025, with total demand forecasted at about 3.7 mbpd), data from consultancy Mysteel Oilchem showed. Diesel demand in China is expected slide -3.2% with peak demand back in 2021. The drop in demand was seen due to a weaker economy and a rapid rise in EV sales. EV and hybrid sales in China topped combustion engine vehicle sales for the first time in July.
China Will Ban Exports to the US of gallium, germanium, antimony and graphite that have potential military applications, its commerce ministry said, a day after Washington’s latest chip bans China’s technology sector. These minerals, while present in the US, are often not mined or processed domestically at levels sufficient to meet demand, leading to a heavy reliance on imports, especially from China for refined products. The environmental impact has been the limiting factor.
USDA’s Weekly Crop Progress showed US corn and soybean harvests done while winter wheat planting was likewise completed and at better condition than a year ago (good/excellent at 47% versus 41%). China imported 8.1 million metric tons of soybeans in October with buyers rushing to stockpile before Donald Trump takes office early next year, as the world’s top soybean buyer heads for its largest annual imports on record. However, overseas shipments of soybeans into China in the year ending September 2025 were predicted to drop -9.5% to 98.8 million metric tons on his tariff policies. Argentina’s 2024/25 soybean crop was in good condition after getting a moisture boost from rainfall in the country’s main farming regions in recent weeks, with 98% of the area planted with soybeans now having adequate to optimal moisture. French winter wheat and barley crops also made good progress this year with strong conditions as well. Finally, Western Australia should produce 420,000 metric tons more wheat this year than was projected a month ago, adding to expectations that Australia’s national crop will be larger than pre-harvest estimates. Analysts in Australia had already added around one million tons after early harvest results showed very high yields in the eastern state of New South Wales.
And in other news:
With Thanksgiving just past, woe to the turkey farmers who see their product being displaced by ham and prime rib (see right).
An ice rink worker had his daughter’s bright pink mobile phone frozen within a newly formed ice rink. Rob Cook, director at Ice Leisure, said the phone would have to remain there for the next two months as digging it out could affect the structure of the ice. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyvm03ep7yo
All the best in your investing!
David Burkart, CFA
Coloma Capital Futures®, LLC
www.colomacapllc.com
Special contributor to aiSource