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eurozone unemployment rates

Global Economic Review: June 2017

Jul 25, 2017
US Q1 GDP growth was further revised up to +1.4% from +1.2% annualized on quite better consumer spending while the Q2 forecast trend by the Atlanta Federal Reserve slipped lower to below 3%.
US Unit Labor Costs

Global Economic Review: May 2017

Jul 12, 2017
US Q1 GDP growth was revised up to +1.2% from +0.7% annualized (due to higher business investment and consumer spending) and the Q2 forecast has held in the high 3% range for most of the quarter by the Atlanta Federal Reserve, setting the expectation for a decent 2017.
2017 Quarterly GDP growth

Global Economic Review: April 2017

May 17, 2017
The US economy disappointed in Q1 2017 by growing only +0.7% at an annualized rate. Q1 has been disappointing over the last five years, with growth an average of +1% versus +2.5% for the other2017 Quarterly GDP growth quarters.
China Freight Turnover

Global Economic Review: March 2017

Apr 25, 2017
The Federal Reserve did indeed raise rates as expected at the March meeting, setting the pace for three hikes this year. In the meeting minutes released in early April, the Fed also indicated that they may also change monetary policy to allow for gradual reduction of the bond stockpile bought during Quantitative Easing.
italian bank debts

Global Economic Review: February 2017

Mar 21, 2017
The Federal Reserve went into reverse on interest rate direction with multiple governors indicating that at the March meeting there will be an increase based on low unemployment rates (headline number at a low 4.8%) and steady to higher GDP growth (currently +1.8% annualized per the Atlanta Fed, on par with Q4 2016 GDP of +1.9% annualized).
chinese bank loans

Global Economic Review: January 2017

Feb 22, 2017
The Federal Reserve kept rates steady at its end-of-January meeting and gave no indication that one was offing in March. Yellen will run out of time soon if she wants to make it three increases this year, though we still hold onto our forecast of two.
non performing loans

Global Economic Review: December 2016

Jan 19, 2017
The Federal Reserve raised rates at its December meeting and projected three increases for 2017. Q3 GDP growth was good at +3.5% and Q4 GDP looks promising at +2.9% per the Atlanta branch of the Fed.
opec production cut

November 2016 Global Macro Recap

Dec 14, 2016
Regardless of one’s political alignment, deficit spending looks to be on the horizon (though Trump still has to get a debt ceiling increase through Congress by March 2017 as the limit was suspended until then by the 2015 budget negotiations). With the Federal Reserve all-but-certain to raise rates at their December 13-14 meeting, are we stepping off into a new economic regime?
US total auto sales annualized

October 2016 Global Macro Recap

Nov 16, 2016
Finally the US Presidential election is over and we can move on to more important things like the economy and foreign relations – of course both of those are highly politicized too.
US initial jobless claims 2006-2015

September 2016 Global Macro Recap

Oct 10, 2016
Summer is over and the leaves are turning. The US’ Federal Reserve branch in Atlanta continued to lower US growth expectations from +3.5% annualized to only +2.2% annualized.
u.s. gasoline stocks

August 2016 Global Macro Recap

Sep 13, 2016
The world ambled through summer – no one wanted to rock the boat until the kids are back in school and adults go back to work. The US continued its good-news / bad-news cycle that seems to make for low volatility markets but with an underlying sense of unease.
working-age population

July 2016 Global Macro Recap

Aug 09, 2016
UK’s Brexit quickly faded into memory as the Tories rallied around a new Prime Minister, Ms. Teresa May, who quickly put her government into place. With two years before any renewed panic over what Brexit means and plenty of negotiation to happen in between, the markets moved on.
u.s. drought monitor

June 2016 Global Macro Recap

Jul 20, 2016
The paths of UK and Europe after the Brexit “Leave” vote are now wide open, though the direction is uncertain.
Japan - Exports & Imports June 2011-June 2016

May 2016 Global Macro Recap

Jun 22, 2016
The quiet of May was short-lived as the market reacted to the US Federal Reserve switching its messaging from strong US GDP growth and improving economic conditions supporting a rate hike of an incremental +0.25% to backing off on lowered GDP expectations on disappointing job creation numbers and labor market sentiment.
greek debt payments due

April 2016 Global Macro Recap

May 11, 2016
The dovish central bank tone continued in April with a few twists and a realization of a massive fiscal boost by the world’s second-largest economy. This in turn fueled a risk-on mentality particularly in commodities, which are generally perceived as the most (only?) under-valued asset class after losing about 1/3rd of its value during the last twelve months ending March.
U.S. Baker Hughes Rig Count

March 2016 Global Macro Recap

Apr 13, 2016
In the end March was a pretty straightforward month in terms of news – central banks were dovish and OPEC was bullish.
Eurozone Unemployment Rate - 2006-2015

January 2016 Global Macro Recap

Feb 10, 2016
The US Federal Reserve kept rates steady in its January meeting but the poor showing of Q4 2015 GDP sparked off speculation that no more rate hikes are likely in 2016. The rest of this article covers the global economy and the impacts the markets.
december 2015 currency reserves

December 2015 Global Macro Recap

Jan 14, 2016
The US Federal Reserve stayed true to its messaging with a +0.25% to the targeted Fed Funds midpoint rate of +0.375, making this the first interest rate increase in nine years. The ECB kicked off the central bank holiday festivities with a less-than-expected expansion of its Q€ program, disappointing the markets.
Southbay EU Shipping Index

October 2015 Global Macro Recap

Nov 18, 2015
October 2015 Global Macro Recap
Southbay EU Semiconductor Index

September 2015 Global Macro Recap

Oct 09, 2015
September 2015 Global Macro Recap

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